November 2020. The increases in inventory and sales have created more efficiency in the market. Nationally, home prices have never been higher, and the high demand for single-family homes has dropped the Months of Supply Inventory to the lowest level ever, according to the National Association of Realtors. Welcome to our December newsletter. The October 2020 figure was the lowest ever recorded. The large number of unemployed workers without government assistance will affect the rental market first, because those working in the hospitality and leisure industries have been most affected by unemployment, and those individuals tend to be renters rather than homeowners. In particular, we examine some crucial economic indicators, such as third-quarter Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)1 and new housing permits. The number of condos on the market remains high in absolute and historical terms. At least part of the spike in Los Angeles, Palm Springs, and Austin might be attributed to tech workers divorcing themselves from the astronomical San Francisco housing market… Single-family homes are not commanding as large of a premium as they were pre-pandemic, and condos are even selling below list. 1 of 37. We can use Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) as a metric to judge whether the market favors buyers or sellers. The median condo price continued to see the effects of excess supply, with the median dropping to $1.2 million. Currently, San Francisco — which prior to the Covid-19 pandemic saw housing costs skyrocket and struggled with curbing displacement in its working class and low … San Francisco (34.3 percent) and San Mateo (0.7 percent) remained the only counties in California with an increase in active listings from the prior year. This, combined with the fact that most entertainment venues, eateries and bars in the city have closed, has given many residents — particularly tech employees and transplants — little reason to stay, when more spacious, literally greener pastures beckon in (relatively) less costly regions in California such as Lake Tahoe or Palm Springs. San Francisco still remains the most expensive market in the country, ahead of New York City, Boston, and San Jose, which all had negative year … A Strong and Stable Housing Market Is Forecast for 2020 San Francisco was ranked in the top twenty for “real estate prospecting, citing a growing local economy, young workforce, and a long-term sustainable market” by the Urban Land Institute. October 2020 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report: Homes Sell Even Faster While Buyers Pay Summer Prices ... (30.6% year-over-year), New York (28.2%), and San Francisco … The data show that housing has remained consistently strong through this period. Get a $98 Mercedes SL-400 ride-on at Walmart, Get a $17 Roku during Walmart's Black Friday sale, Get a Coravin wine system for 50% off on Amazon, Save up to $130 during Le Creuset's Black Friday sale, Walmart's Black Friday sale has $30 Nintendo Switch games, Finally: Festive trash fire apparel for the holidays, Nintendo Switches are back in stock at Amazon, but not for long, Powerbeats are at their lowest price the day after Cyber Monday, This Lego sale shows off how many collaborations they do. We will still go over the ins and outs of these indicators, however, because they have received so much press and may affect home prices in the future. In October, sales increased and are at or near the highest level this year for single-family homes and condos. The Days on Market (DOM) is slightly higher year-over-year. San Francisco city officials opened a new COVID-19 testing site at the Alemany Farmers' Market on Tuesday as part of the city's strategic testing program, according to a press release. People sit in Alamo Square overlooking the city skyline in San Francisco on March 26, 2020. These 13 housing crash factors will shape the housing market. This game simulates what I miss most about life in S.F. Since September, DOM has stayed about the same. In October, the median single-family home price slightly retracted year-over-year, with a median home price of $1.63 million. In this month’s newsletter, we cover the following: 1Real GDP is inflation-adjusted GDP. "Whereas in similar cities like Los Angeles, Miami, Boston, Seattle, and Washington, D.C., declining or flat inventory is a consistent trend within and outside the city limits. < Back to market reports Unlike most of the state, San Francisco’s jobs market was well passed the point for recovery from the 2008 recession going into the 2020 recession. San Francisco has been serving as an example of all-time high real estate prices for many years. As a result, we will continue to monitor these numbers. Months of Supply Inventory has declined because of the inventory drop. Overall, the housing market has shown its resilience through the pandemic and remains one of the safest asset classes. Realtor.com 2020 housing market predictions: The U.S. housing market will continue to slow in 2020 as inventory reaches historic lows and economic uncertainty prompts … Months of Supply Inventory is an important marker of real estate market health because it measures how many months it would take for all current homes for sale on the market to sell at the current rate of sales. As that green line shows, we are 40% below where GDP was expected to be this fourth quarter. 16 organizers knew the measure would fail. Email: Andrew.Chamings@sfgate.com | Twitter: @AndrewChamings, SFGATE Local Editor Andrew Chamings grew up in Devon, England and moved to San Francisco in 2007. Total inventory decreased slightly in October because the number of sold homes rose, while new listings decreased. The chart below illustrates the cost of a recession. We welcome you to contact us with any questions about the current market or to request an evaluation of your home or condo. News. November 2020. Lack of supply compared to demand typically buoys San Francisco’s prices. And finally, because so much time is currently being spent at home, buyers are willing to use more of their income to create nicer living spaces, buying larger homes, luxury furniture, and new appliances. As of October, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 11.1 million workers remained unemployed, which is an unemployment rate of 6.9%. A gradual rise in inventory levels. The number of home building permits is the highest it’s been since the housing bubble burst in 2006. Online real estate company Zillow released new statistics shining a stark light on the issue this week. ", Andrew Chamings is an editor at SFGATE. In other words, we are still underwater despite the impressive third-quarter 2020 increase in GDP. San Francisco Real Estate Market Mixed Indicators August 2020 . By Adam Brinklow Mar 23, 2020, 8:39am PDT ... Photo via Shutterstock. Housing Market Crash 2021: The housing reports are comprehensive assessments and predictions of US Housing markets drawing insight from NAR, CAR, Corelogic, Wall Street Journal, Freddie Mac, tradingeconomics, statista, and more industry sources. The median condo price will likely continue to decline. This trend is likely to continue, as new listings are still coming to market and inventory remains near historic highs. Pandemic-era supply and demand dynamics vary widely by property type, price segment and neighborhood. Less opportunity for travel, entertainment, and leisure activities could result in an increase in savings. Zillow’s outlook for the Bay Area housing market echoes a recent report from Bank of the West Chief Economist Scott Anderson, who also sees home prices dropping in … Hawaii is looking for remote workers to relocate, Grandmother throws table to defend her SF restaurant from attacking customer, Bay Area tech worker awarded $10M after being shot by deputy in Tahoe, 'They lost partly because of that ad': How No on Prop. We expect the San Francisco single-family home and condo markets to continue their different trends through the autumn and winter months. An MSI lower than three means that buyers dominate the market and there are relatively few sellers (i.e., it’s a sellers’ market), while a higher MSI means there are more sellers than buyers (i.e., it’s a buyers’ market). Economists expect lower fourth-quarter GDP growth, which will not make up all the ground lost in the second quarter. The average sale price of a home in San Francisco was $1.41M last month, down 3.8% since last year. November Housing Market Updates for San Francisco. Disposable personal income and savings, which both dropped in the third quarter, are two of the most important factors when considering whether or not to buy a home. The pandemic soon led to tech giants like Google, Facebook and Twitter rethinking what work looks like, as many have allowed employees to work remotely for the foreseeable future, and maybe forever. As illustrated below, the San Francisco market currently reflects a variety of both positive and negative indicators. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a 7.4% third-quarter gain to GDP, which is the broadest measure of goods and services produced. In this issue, we dive into some key economic indicators that tend to affect long-term home prices. In San Francisco, list prices have fallen 4.9% year over year and inventory has risen 96% with a flood of new listings. The employment level does matter in the long term, particularly for the housing market. In summary, the high inventory levels have made the condo market favor buyers. It's time to start worrying about the housing market again because it is completely overheated, with YoY median U.S. home price growth around 12% in 2020. The San Francisco housing market is the most expensive market in the most expensive state. Because San Francisco has been so undersupplied, buyers have been incentivized to offer the highest bids for the houses they love. Although California’s COVID-19 cases remain fewer per capita than those of most other states, cases are rising in California, and the United States as a whole is seeing new peaks every day. Despite suboptimal major indicators, housing prices have risen considerably. In September, the number of unemployed workers and the number of those collecting unemployment insurance were roughly the same. Their "2020 Urban-Suburban Market Report" reveals that inventory has risen a whopping 96% year-on-year, as empty homes in the city flood the market like … Even though it might not feel like it, this is still the case for single-family homes. The two markets diverged in July because the buildup of condo inventory caused the largest median condo price decline this year. The second-quarter drop was so sharp that the third-quarter bounce was expected. Follow him on Twitter. Many people have not experienced negative financial effects from the pandemic. Supply, however, is simply outpacing demand. Welcome to our December newsletter. The MSI for condos fell to 4.7, still favoring buyers. Low Months of Supply Inventory means that there is a high demand for homes that will push prices higher more rapidly. Email: Andrew.Chamings@sfgate.com, The 2020 San Francisco exodus is real, and historic, report shows. Single-family home inventory is noticeably higher, but it is still low relative to demand. In particular, we examine some crucial economic indicators, such as third-quarter Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)1 and new housing permits. Ozimek says you can already tell there is a Bay Area exodus by looking at the recent rental market. "It may be tempting to credit the city of San Francisco’s inventory boom to the advent of remote work that came with the pandemic, but one only has to look at to San Jose to question that narrative," Clark said. The reason for this change is likely a combination of a few unprecedented factors that have collided this summer, resulting in a historic shift in the city. The sales surged by 90.2% YTY — the highest among all the counties of the Bay Area. While this has become the norm in San Francisco, it remains atypical nationally. Bay Area will be nation’s coolest housing market in 2020, survey says Kathleen Pender Jan. 2, 2020 Updated: Jan. 2, 2020 7:39 p.m. Facebook Twitter Email LinkedIn Reddit Pinterest The dotted line in the chart represents the predicted GDP had the 2008 financial crisis never happened, and the green line illustrates the expected third-quarter 2020 GDP had the pandemic never happened. Los Angeles Surpasses San Francisco as the Least Affordable Housing Market Thu, 02/27/2020 The country’s least affordable housing market is now in Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale , according to the National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo’s Housing Opportunity Index. Real estate inventory change from February to July 2020, in metro area and city proper. "When comparing the principal city to its surrounding suburbs, the San Francisco metro area does break the mold. 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He was formerly Senior Editor at The Bold Italic and has written for The Atlantic, Vice and McSweeney's. The average sale price per square foot in San Francisco is $988, down 5.3% since last year. Homes in San Francisco receive 3 offers on average and sell in around 29.5 days. By Rachel Shomali. This month, we take a look at the ways in which current U.S. economic conditions are affecting local, state, and national real estate markets. The long-term effects of the initial drop, however, have yet to be seen. The increased inventory San Francisco is currently seeing gives buyers more options, meaning they are no longer forced to offer huge amounts over list prices. San Francisco exodus: https://t.co/VaoQr5V0nQ pic.twitter.com/rywb8z7Poa. Real estate experts will be watching the Bay Area housing market closing in 2020, the start of a new decade. 233.1% annualized. Then by 2H2019, the housing market strengthened due to low rates and a strong stock market. "The San Jose metro, which like the city of SF is dominated by tech workers, has not seen a similar rise. Pandemic-era supply and demand dynamics vary widely by property type, price segment and neighborhood. While it depicts U.S. GDP from 2005 to present, it illustrates economic patterns that occur in all recessions. Single-family house prices rise by 8.1% to $1,665,000, $2000 more than August's median price. ATHERTON (CBS SF) – While the COVID-19 pandemic has upended the Bay Area’s rental market, the region continues to be the most expensive housing market in the country by far in 2020. During the second quarter of 2020, GDP dropped 9.5% quarter-over-quarter. GDP and employment together explain much of the economic climate and typically trend with housing prices, but they do not explain the current rise in home prices. At the same time, mortgage rates are historically low (2.78% as of November 5, 2020) and will remain low for the foreseeable future, making financing higher-priced homes more affordable. Zillow economist Josh Clark tells SFGATE that the remote work shift alone has not sparked the exodus. Mortgage rates continue at all-time lows, and buyers are devoting more of their total spending to housing costs. Generally, buyers and sellers left the market in April and May, causing pent-up demand. Please enter your username or email address. By the end of August almost 25% of homes on the market in San Francisco had come down in price, according to the Redfin Data Center, and the number of listings that entered the market … UCSF doctor releases timeline for COVID-19 vaccine: When will you get it? The single-family home market, however, once again favors sellers in San Francisco. Holy crap. Regardless, the 96% year on year change in inventory marks a significant moment. However, the number of out-of-work individuals collecting unemployment insurance has dropped to 7.3 million. Our team of experienced professionals are happy to discuss the information we have shared in this newsletter. Two things that could drive the difference are San Francisco’s density and its smaller share of family households.". Justin Sullivan/Getty Images … The average MSI is three months in California, which indicates a balanced market. What To Expect in 2021's Housing Market: This Is How Much Home Prices Will Rise Coming off of the roller-coaster ride that was 2020, the 2021 housing market could hold a … A new report confirms what many have been talking about for weeks: There is an exodus out of San Francisco, and the numbers are staggering. In October, the MSI for single-family homes decreased to 1.8, favoring sellers. Homeowners and renters require income (generally from employment) to make mortgage or rent payments. San Francisco and Bay Area real estate market, please give us a call. This month, we take a look at the conditions of the U.S. and... Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. Year-over-year, median single-family home prices were down 1%, while condos experienced the largest decline at 13% down. All references to GDP use Real GDP figures. With the current supply of condos, the market cannot support the prices seen pre-pandemic. As we make our way through the autumn months, we continue to provide you with the most up-to-date market information so that you feel supported and informed in your buying and selling decisions. User registration is disabled in this demo. GDP tends to grow at a fairly consistent rate during economic expansions. Welcome to our December newsletter. In particular, we examine some crucial economic indicators, such as third-quarter Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), SAN FRANCISCO REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE – November 2020, SAN FRANCISCO REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE – December 2020. Experts pessimistic about California housing market in 2020 Toggle header content. San Francisco Housing Market Report (September 2020) Among Bay Area markets, San Franciso County saw extremely high demand in the month of September. Home sales have climbed since the initial months of the pandemic (March through May). The rise in housing demand and price under the current economic scenario speaks to three factors: (1) the asymmetric effect of the pandemic on personal income; (2) monetary policy (low interest rates); and (3) buyer preference. If you are interested in selling, buying or just curious about the Usually, we expect sales to decline in the autumn and winter months, but this year’s summer selling season was delayed and seems to be spilling into autumn. Strong sales, but dramatically rising inventory (and price reductions), especially in the condo market, make San Francisco a complex market. The astronomical cost of owning a home in the San Francisco city limits — which has been sky high for over a decade now, since the second tech boom — had to break at some point, and the coronavirus seems to be the straw that broke the camel's back. Not only are sales of existing homes up, but so are home building permits. Although California’s COVID-19 cases remain fewer […] Welcome to our October newsletter. This month, we take a look at the ways in which current U.S. economic conditions are affecting local, state, and national real estate markets. Rents are down 9% from a year ago in San Francisco and over 15% in some tech hubs in the South Bay, according to a recent report by Zumper, a rental housing … Welcome to our September newsletter. The same dramatic shift has not been seen in other large cities across the country, according to the report. San Francisco Housing Market 2020. It should be noted that San Francisco had an unusually low inventory relative to other large cities prior to the pandemic. 2020 Median Home Prices In San Francisco. Welcome to our November newsletter. Even amidst this uncertainty, demand for homes has never been higher. In both the short and long terms, housing is one of the best investments one can make. The San Francisco housing market is very competitive. Strong sales, but dramatically rising inventory (and price reductions), especially in the condo market, make San Francisco a complex market. Graph and download economic data for S&P/Case-Shiller CA-San Francisco Home Price Index (SFXRSA) from Jan 1987 to Sep 2020 about San Francisco, CA, HPI, housing, price index, price, indexes, and USA. Higher levels of inventory, up 96% YoY following a flood of new listings during the pandemic, are sitting on the market in the city proper, a significantly larger jump than the surrounding suburbs," the report states. Their "2020 Urban-Suburban Market Report" reveals that inventory has risen a whopping 96% year-on-year, as empty homes in the city flood the market like nowhere else in America. The large supply of condos has successfully given buyers a greater opportunity to find the right home for them, which we can see by the number of homes sold. The autumn/winter season tends to see a slowdown in activity, although we may see a new trend this year with higher-than-normal sales. Our third prediction for the California housing market in 2021 … San Francisco is known for homes selling well above list. Check out the latest US stats, and discover when you should buy or sell. We are here to help you and anyone you care about. 1815 Egbert Avenue • San Francisco CA • 94124 (415) 715-3284 • Facsimile (415) 508-1733 2020 Fair Market Rents and Payment Standards New Payment Standards are effective 1/1/20 for all transactions TENANT AND PROJECT BASED VOUCHERS Read more Economic indicators are in an anomalous state, meaning that they are out of trend with each other. San Francisco House & Condo Markets Diverge. Before buying an investment property anywhere, you have to know that specific real estate market’s current condition and … Ultimately, the loss in GDP will likely be permanent. In Manhattan, home values have dropped 4.2% since last year and homes are staying on the market two months longer than a year ago, According to StreetEasy’s July Market Report. Despite ups and downs, San Francisco’s housing market has seemed invincible in recent years, such that it … The drop in condo prices is consistent with the runup in supply. The housing market in various parts of the country did start to soften in 2018 and 1H2019. This month, we take a look at the ways in which current U.S. economic conditions are affecting local, state, and national real estate markets. You will receive a link to create a new password via email. Historically, the ratio of homes for sale relative to total housing has been a quarter of New York's. The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home was 10 days in October, down from 24 in October 2019. Single-family home prices will likely remain stable with no outsized gains or losses through the winter months. We anticipate new listings to slow until excess inventory lowers. As always, we remain committed to helping our clients achieve their current and future real estate goals. An average person who did not lose their job may have even gained financially through a decrease in expenses.